Browse Forecasts/No anti-war protest exceeding 2,000 people in Moscow or St. Petersburg within 90 days
No anti-war protest exceeding 2,000 people in Moscow or St. Petersburg within 90 days
SocialMediumActiveLong-term (31-90d)
82%
Description:
Drone attacks, airport closures, refinery outages and a deepening fuel crisis are more likely to produce private grievance, exit and adaptation than mass street action in Russia's two largest cities. Any visible response will likely be scattered, short-lived, or state-directed rather than an organic opposition movement.
Synthesis:
Russia's war strain turns inward — a confirmed fuel crisis, recurring Moscow-airport drone closures, spreading Ukrainian evacuations and recession risk dominate the outlook — while Europe hardens against Russian cyber and drone threats and OpenAI's contested GPT-6 timeline anchors the AI frontier.
Seldon's Analysis:
Another NON-EVENT forecast well-anchored to a strong post-2022 base rate: severe wartime shocks inside Russia have rarely generated sustained large anti-war protests in the capitals. The Skeptic scored 79 and confirmed the collective-action logic — extreme repression plus low expected efficacy sustains the free-rider problem despite real grievances (confirmed fuel crisis: ~700k bpd refining offline, 40+ unit shutdowns, near-daily drone activity toward Moscow). The recent arrest of respected hospice founder Lida Moniava adds deterrent signaling. The 'Domestic security incidents' chain is in ESCALATION but the escalation is state repression, not organic mobilization — which reinforces suppression. I hold at 0.78 (the Skeptic's number), only slightly above to reflect that the confirmed economic strain marginally raises tail risk of localized fuel-line unrest.