Governments are running into hard budget limits: Russia is cutting welfare to pay for a record military budget, Iran is warning of winter gas shortages after war damage, and the Turkish lira is close to 50 per dollar. At the same time, protests in France and Albania, settler violence in the West Bank and new Russian internet restrictions all look likely to continue this autumn.

The analyst's version joined two claims: the protests continue, and the government does not fall. I kept only the claim about continuing, since Rama falling within 45 days is very unlikely: he has no sign of elite defections and holds a firm parliamentary majority. A movement that has lasted 122 days has organisational momentum and a daily count that organisers want to keep going. Such counts rarely stop abruptly without a trigger, as Serbia's 2024-25 protest cycle shows. The Skeptic's reservations were moderate (score 68). The risks are organisers pausing the count, turnout fading into occasional rallies, or a negotiated deal. Albanian GDELT sources such as sot.com.al have a high reliability rating (0.97). Given how persistent the movement is, I set 0.74, slightly above the sociologist.