Widening wars on two fronts dominate the outlook: Russia's high-tempo missile campaign against Ukrainian cities and Kyiv's accelerating strikes on Russian Black Sea oil ports both look set to continue, while a widening US-Iran conflict — including strikes on Kuwaiti infrastructure — keeps Gulf energy and shipping risk elevated even as Brent trades near $89. Beijing's looming rare-earth controls add a slower-burning industrial-supply shock beneath the immediate security shocks.

Fact-check confirmed the sociologist's core premise: protests are real, spread across several cities, but turnout is in the hundreds, with no coordinating organizations (unions, veterans, opposition) yet mobilized. Collective-action theory says the absence of coordinating structures plus wartime threat salience (major Russian missile attacks redirecting grievance outward) makes rapid national scaling unlikely. The sociologist has the highest sector weight in the pool (social 0.51) and Skeptic scored this 84. HOWEVER my own social record is WEAK (over-prediction +10pp), so I apply mandatory compression: from the proposal's 0.76 down toward 0.72. Three ways I could be wrong: (1) a symbolic escalation (arrest/casualty) triggers a coordination cascade; (2) opposition parties opportunistically adopt the cause; (3) veterans' networks enter given Fedorov's battlefield-turnaround reputation. These tail risks justify not going higher. 0.72.