Russia-Ukraine deep-strike warfare dominates the near-term outlook with Moscow airports already shutting and Russian Black Sea oil infrastructure under sustained pressure, while Israel's southern Lebanon footprint and US-Iran impasse keep the Middle East unsettled — and the FCC's April 30 vote to ban China-based test labs marks a fresh acceleration of US-China tech decoupling.

This forecast is closer to a fact-check than a prediction: April 2026 HICP flash data already shows readings of 2.6%-3.04% Y/Y, satisfying the 'at least once' criterion. The Skeptic correctly flagged that 0.69 base rate underestimated this. My economics track record is weak (Brier 0.323, +31pp over-bias), so I would normally compress toward 50%, but here recent data confirms the outcome empirically — bias correction does not apply when the event is essentially observable. I cap at 0.92 rather than higher to account for any data-revision risk and my known overconfidence pattern. Density matrix purity for the global economic chain is low (0.27), but the 'Resource And Energy Shock' interpretation (35%) directly supports inflation persistence.