Governments are running into hard budget limits: Russia is cutting welfare to pay for a record military budget, Iran is warning of winter gas shortages after war damage, and the Turkish lira is close to 50 per dollar. At the same time, protests in France and Albania, settler violence in the West Bank and new Russian internet restrictions all look likely to continue this autumn.

A web search confirmed that the draft cuts social policy spending by 7%, according to Reuters and Meduza. That leaves a 2-point cushion above the 5% threshold. The Duma and Federation Council pass the government's budget almost exactly as written, and Putin usually signs it in late November or early December, well inside the 90 days. Duma amendments rarely move major spending categories by more than a point or two. The main risks are technical. The 7% might be measured against a baseline that differs from 'the 2026 plan', or Putin might make a late populist gesture on pensions before the 2026-27 political cycle. The political analyst (0.73) and the economist (0.68) proposed versions of the same claim. I merged them and kept the economist's threshold because it can be measured. Both analyst figures sit below mine because they were written before the draft figures were independently confirmed. The domestic-strain scenario ('budget deficit widens: 90%') supports the direction.