Institutional guardrails hold as the Supreme Court shields Fed independence, while a fragile US-Iran de-escalation pulls oil lower and eases spike risk — even as Iran's currency and streets stay under inflation stress. Meanwhile confrontation grinds on at the edges: Russian energy-cyber retaliation against Ukraine, armed shadow-fleet tankers in the Baltic, and tightening tech decoupling across Europe and East Asia.

I fact-checked the core claim and it is CONFIRMED: the Supreme Court refused (5-4) to allow the immediate removal of Governor Cook, keeping her in office while her legal challenge proceeds. This is the strongest-grounded proposal in the pool. The Skeptic's 0.80 is reasonable, and because my economics forecasts run ~7pp UNDER (I tend to underestimate), I nudge up to 0.85. The main residual risk is that the underlying case is still preliminary — the ruling preserves the status quo pending final adjudication rather than settling the merits — but the Court signaling this strongly makes a further successful removal within six months unlikely. High-conviction, concrete resolution criterion (any successful executive removal of an FOMC member before 2026 year-end).