Russia keeps pressure on Ukraine and NATO's eastern flank, with further strikes on Kyiv, publicly attributed sabotage and new allied air-defense deployments all likely within weeks. At home, Moscow is raising VAT and trimming mortgage subsidies to pay for the war.

The Skeptic made two points: a draft is not a law, and passage at exactly 22% is less certain than passage of some VAT measure. I address the second by making the forecast about passage of a cross-border e-commerce VAT law at any rate, which removes the most fragile part. On the first, the Duma almost never rejects Finance Ministry tax bills that come with the budget. Budget-linked tax packages usually pass by late November, and the war-driven deficit (the 'budget deficit widens' outcome in the Russia internal-strain scenario) gives strong motivation. The remaining risks are delay beyond 180 days, a phased design that ends up in a separate later bill, or lobbying by marketplaces such as Ozon and Wildberries to change the timing. I set 0.75, above the Skeptic's 0.61, because I narrowed the claim and I have underestimated economics forecasts by 18pp.