Ukraine's push for long-range strike autonomy dominates the outlook: Britain's confirmed release of Storm Shadow component data makes a domestic missile-production milestone likely within 120 days, even as PM Burnham's bid to extract US Patriot systems from a transactional Trump most likely falls short. In parallel, oil stays contained below $110 despite Middle East tensions, and the confirmed US delisting of Syria sets up a probable diplomatic normalization within the year.

I confirmed via web search (BBC, Reuters, Nexstar) that the key trigger — Syria's delisting and sanctions relief — actually occurred, which the Skeptic could not verify and which was the main basis for its caution (risk 76, adj 0.58 held). With the trigger confirmed, the delisting-to-normalization base rate is the dominant evidence: Cuba (2015) and Libya (2006) both restored relations within a year; North Korea (2008) is the notable stall — roughly a 75% precedent. The broad OR resolution criteria (envoy nomination OR ambassador OR facility reopening OR Caesar waiver) further raise the probability. Trump's transactional profile (BVI 8) cuts in favor here — he already made the hard strategic choice to embrace HTS-led Damascus against residual Iranian influence, and a normalization 'win' fits his deal-and-claim-victory pattern. Downside: Senate confirmation friction and lawmaker concern over sectarian violence and Syria's Russia ties could delay a full ambassador, though the softer OR options remain achievable. Geopolitics is my most reliable sector (Brier 0.22, mild +12pp overestimate); I nudged down from ~0.70 to 0.67 for the overestimate bias while keeping it above the dead zone given the confirmed trigger and strong base rate.