A widening Black Sea war on grain logistics dominates today's outlook: simultaneous strikes on Russian and Ukrainian export ports are set to keep ~25% of global wheat trade impaired for months, while Turkey's proposed strike moratorium looks set to fail for lack of any monitoring mechanism. Alongside, an intensifying Ukrainian deep-strike campaign inside Russia (near-certain to continue) and grinding Russian territorial gains define a Russia-Ukraine war still firmly in escalation mode.

The geopolitician (weight 0.56, the strongest analyst weight in the pool and improving) assigned 0.68, and the Skeptic approved at risk 67. I hold this in the dead zone at 0.60 with explicit justification rather than dropping it, because the two-sided uncertainty is genuine and material: the base case is continuation (interceptors are politically low-cost defensive aid, and demand is high), but sustaining an UNINTERRUPTED 12-consecutive-month monthly cadence is demanding given Trump's high behavioral-volatility profile — his escalate/pause/redeal pattern makes at least one delivery gap plausible, and any Trump-brokered ceasefire (the 10% chain branch) would also disrupt the cadence. The 'consecutive/monthly' resolution bar is stricter than 'continued support broadly,' so I discount the analyst's 0.68 toward 0.60. Pillars: alliance dynamics, game theory, psychohistory.