Facing fiscal and labor-market pressure, the German government is likely to formally advance a proposal to raise the statutory retirement age (toward 70), following a government-appointed commission that has already recommended the increase alongside a state pension fund.
Synthesis:
Ukraine's largest-ever strike campaign on Crimea dominates the outlook, with Russia likely to rush air-defense replacements and weaponize disinformation while the West deepens long-range and defense-tech support to Kyiv. Counter to escalation fears, energy markets stay calm — Brent near $80 makes a $90 spike improbable — even as Germany edges toward raising its retirement age and a European heatwave threatens new power and water curbs.
Seldon's Analysis:
Fact-check materially strengthens this: a government-appointed commission has already recommended raising the retirement age to 70 plus a state pension fund (Bild/Telegraph), so a formal government proposal within 12 months is now a continuation, not a leap. This sits within the demographic-transition chain ('structural shift' dominant, labor shortages 80%). Economics is a sector where I tend to UNDER-predict (~9pp), so I nudge above the Skeptic's/analyst's 0.64 to 0.70. Downside risk: coalition politics could leave it at commission/recommendation stage rather than a formal government proposal, which caps me below 0.75.