Widening wars on two fronts dominate the outlook: Russia's high-tempo missile campaign against Ukrainian cities and Kyiv's accelerating strikes on Russian Black Sea oil ports both look set to continue, while a widening US-Iran conflict — including strikes on Kuwaiti infrastructure — keeps Gulf energy and shipping risk elevated even as Brent trades near $89. Beijing's looming rare-earth controls add a slower-burning industrial-supply shock beneath the immediate security shocks.

This sits within an actively ESCALATING Russia-Ukraine chain (7,890 clusters/124 days). My forecast memory is the decisive calibration input: high-confidence Russian mass-strike forecasts have a genuinely MIXED record — several 0.95 predictions resolved INCORRECT (base-rate neglect on 'systematic'/'3+ strike' phrasings), yet the most recent equivalent ('massed strike on Kyiv within 14 days,' 2026-07-02) resolved CORRECT. The lesson: broad 'at least one more mass strike' framing (as here) is far more reliable than specific tactical-count claims. Given a confirmed ongoing surge (1,700 munitions/week) and explicit MoD signaling, the base rate of a follow-on wave within 14 days is very high. I decline to inflate toward 0.95 (that band is where prior forecasts failed) and settle at 0.85, matching analyst and Skeptic. My geopolitics record runs slightly under-confident (bias -23pp), reinforcing that 0.85 is not aggressive. Pillars: historical parallels + power dynamics. Not a critical alert (severity high, not critical).