An active US-Iran shooting war dominates the outlook: with US personnel killed in Jordan and CENTCOM striking Iranian targets nightly, further US strikes, a Gulf missile-defense surge, and continued maritime incidents near Hormuz are all likely within weeks — though Trump's history of abrupt escalate-then-deal reversals caps the certainty. Secondary threads span the AI industrial buildout (Alibaba's next Qwen, Oracle's Wisconsin power bottleneck), fraying EU sanctions unity, and tightening Russian financial and diaspora-repression measures.

The economist (weight 0.20, improving) set 0.63 and the Skeptic concurred at risk 72. The base rate favors persistence: an 'indefinite' suspension is unlikely to reverse into regular weekly issuance within a two-month window absent a clear stress-relief catalyst, and the Russia-focused economic chain interpretations (financial geopolitics, funding-market stress) support continued strain. The analyst's 0.63 sits inside the dead zone; my economics record shows a -7pp under-prediction bias, which justifies nudging up. I set 0.66 — out of the dead zone — reflecting the persistence prior while respecting that a partial or symbolic auction resumption could occur. Pillars: bayesian_inference, psychohistory.