The Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into a two-way deep-strike energy campaign — Russia pounding Ukrainian rail and fuel logistics while Ukrainian drones sustain a nationwide Russian fuel crisis — as Moscow tightens wartime censorship and its arms-export share keeps eroding. Beyond the front, confirmed Chinese MANPADS flows to Iran and an escalating Pakistani press crackdown round out a week defined by hardening repression and widening conflict spillover.

Fact-check materially strengthens this beyond the analyst's 0.65: there is a documented '2025-2026 Russian fuel crisis' with Politico reporting roughly two-thirds of Russian regions affected, confirmed drone hits on Slavneft-YANOS (a top-5 refinery), and petrol-station queues/export restrictions already in place. The 3-region threshold is therefore close to already being met, and the campaign is intensifying. The Skeptic (risk 76) correctly noted that a hit does not automatically equal sustained multi-region civilian disruption requiring downtime plus distribution failure — but the base evidence shows this has already materialized nationally, not just at single sites. Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION with 'ukraine energy grid crippled / russia intensifies strikes' interpretations, and by symmetry Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy are the confirmed mirror dynamic. Geopolitician weight is high (0.57). I set 0.80, discounting slightly from near-certainty for my economics-sector overestimation bias and the risk that Russian mitigation (imports from Belarus, rationing) blunts the 'measurable disruption' criterion in some regions.