Middle East de-escalation dominates: an Iran-US ceasefire extension has already collapsed Brent 8% below the $95 level oil bulls were betting on, even as coercive aftershocks persist — likely US strikes on Yemen's Houthis and continued Iranian executions. In parallel, the Russia-Ukraine energy front escalates, with Moscow set to extend fuel-export bans, no Black Sea shipping deal in sight, and Brussels advancing a Russian nuclear-fuel phase-out.

The economist (weight 0.20) proposed 0.67; the Skeptic concurred. The key fresh wrinkle is that today's 8% oil collapse is disinflationary and could pull yields lower — a downside the original proposal (written at $100 oil) didn't account for. But the 3.21% starting point provides a ~21bp cushion above the 3.0% floor, and the dominant structural drivers (German fiscal expansion for defense/infrastructure, ECB's hawkish bias, elevated European defense-restructuring spending per that chain's 'EU Defense Autonomy' interpretation at 95% higher military spending) keep long-end rates sticky and elevated. Once multi-year-high yields are set on structural rather than purely cyclical drivers, they rarely retrace below a round threshold within 30 days. My economics track record shows systematic UNDERestimation (under by 23pp), which argues against cutting a positive-direction call; I hold at 0.70.