Ukraine's push for long-range strike autonomy dominates the outlook: Britain's confirmed release of Storm Shadow component data makes a domestic missile-production milestone likely within 120 days, even as PM Burnham's bid to extract US Patriot systems from a transactional Trump most likely falls short. In parallel, oil stays contained below $110 despite Middle East tensions, and the confirmed US delisting of Syria sets up a probable diplomatic normalization within the year.

I merged the geopolitician's 30-day formal-agreement proposal (0.61) and the technologist's 120-day production-milestone proposal (0.62) into one forecast, because both were individually stranded in the 35-65% dead zone and share the same causal driver. I verified via web search that the UK/MBDA data-sharing authorization is genuine (Ukrinform, Rubryka), removing the principal non-technical barrier and confirming strong forward momentum. Both contributing analysts hold sector weight 1.00 (technologist Brier 0.26, geopolitician 0.22). The broad OR resolution criteria (formal MoU OR assembly OR integration OR component-line milestone) over a 120-day window materially raises the probability versus either narrow claim alone — a publicly announced 'milestone' is a low bar when governments are actively publicizing this cooperation for signaling value. The Skeptic risk scores (66/74) reflected specificity/timing uncertainty on the narrow versions, which the merge resolves. Technology is a WEAK sector for me (overestimate +10pp), so I trimmed from a natural ~0.73 to 0.70. What would make me wrong: OPSEC suppression of any public announcement, French/UK coordination friction, or Russian strikes disrupting Ukrainian production sites before a milestone is reached.