The US-Iran war enters an entrenched phase with no ceasefire in sight, driving sustained oil price disruption likely to hold Brent above $110/barrel through Q2, urgent nuclear safety monitoring expansion across the Gulf, and Iran's formalization of wartime economic controls — while the structural risk of Iranian NPT withdrawal emerges as a genuine decade-scale concern.

The political analyst proposed this at P=0.63 (condensed, Skeptic risk_score 68, adjusted P=0.63). I assess significantly higher at P=0.78, deviating +0.15 from the adjusted probability, because the convergence of event chain evidence and overwhelming historical base rates justifies strong confidence. CHAIN EVIDENCE: 'Iran activates resistance economy amid war' is one of the most active chains in the system (30 clusters over 10 days, with recent escalation trajectory including development → escalation patterns). This chain's persistence and density signal genuine institutional movement, not mere rhetoric. Supporting chains include: 'IRGC commander rises to Iran security council secretary' (4 clusters, consolidation of military governance), 'Iran regime shift to military junta described' (3 clusters, discussion stage — structural governance shift under active consideration), and 'Iran blockade drives up oil prices, hits businesses' (8 clusters, escalation — domestic economic pressure mounting). HISTORICAL BASE RATE: This is the decisive factor. Virtually every nation engaged in sustained major warfare implements formal wartime economic controls. Iran's own precedent from the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88) saw comprehensive rationing of food, fuel, and industrial goods within the first months. Britain (1939), USSR (1941), US (1942), Israel (1973) — the pattern is near-universal. The current conflict features direct strikes on Iranian industrial and nuclear infrastructure, Hormuz disruption affecting Iran's own oil export revenues, and total mobilization signals (conscription age reportedly lowered to 12). The IRGC's consolidation of decision-making authority (security council secretary appointment) streamlines the path from rhetoric to decree — the IRGC already controls significant parallel economic structures (Bonyads, Khatam al-Anbiya). The Skeptic's condensed review at P=0.63 likely reflects insufficient context from the condensed format. The primary residual uncertainty is definitional: Iran may implement controls informally through IRGC parallel structures rather than formal Supreme National Security Council decrees, or controls may be implemented provincially before being nationalized. I set P=0.78 rather than higher to account for this definitional ambiguity and the 45-day window, which is tight for bureaucratic formalization even in wartime. Pillars: Psychohistory (wartime economic mobilization is among the most reliable historical patterns), Game Theory (regime survival requires resource allocation control under bombardment), Network Theory (IRGC governance consolidation enables rapid policy transmission through existing parallel structures).