Great-power military signaling dominates the outlook: China's rare Pacific strategic-missile test is set to trigger a fresh wave of US-allied deterrence measures, while Ukraine's crippling of 13 of Russia's 15 largest refineries threatens a domestic fuel-price shock. Domestic pressure points widen in parallel — Cuba's third nationwide blackout, an expected Erdogan crackdown around the NATO summit — even as record ocean heat underscores an accelerating climate baseline.

Fact-check confirms the strike on Omsk and, more importantly, reporting that Ukraine has damaged 13 of Russia's 15 largest refineries — a far broader supply shock than a single-site hit. The 'Global economic volatility' chain's dominant interpretation (55%) is precisely 'Russia Fuel Crisis' with 80% probability of export restrictions. Historical base rate for post-strike fuel price spikes is 10-20% within weeks, so 15% is plausible but at the upper-middle of the range. The key countervailing force is aggressive Russian price controls and export bans, which suppress the OFFICIAL headline figure even when real scarcity is severe — this is why I do not go higher. The Skeptic passed at 0.62 (risk 73). My economics track record shows I UNDERESTIMATE (~20pp), which argues against cutting the number despite the price-cap risk, so I settle just below the analyst at 0.60. Bayesian and Psychohistory pillars (repeated strike-shock cycles) support the direction.