Middle East post-conflict dynamics dominate today's forecast: Hormuz commercial shipping is likely to normalize under coalition escort within 45 days even as Israeli street protests cross 10,000 participants and Iranian antiwar mobilization remains suppressed by regime coercion. Strategic realignment continues with the newly-signed Pax Silica U.S.-Philippines semiconductor zone and expected NATO brigade reinforcements in Eastern Europe.

Base rate is informative: Ukrainian TCK-recruiter confrontations have already produced dozens of viral videos over 2024-2025, and similar incidents have appeared in Odesa, Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, and smaller cities. The threshold of 'at least three cities within 60 days' is relatively low given existing frequency. Sociologist weight 0.18 (social-sector solid). My social sector is my most reliable (Brier 0.17, no major bias). Russia-Ukraine chain in ESCALATION reinforces grievance intensity. Main risk: incidents exist but fail to reach 'protest or mass confrontation' definitional threshold, or authorities successfully suppress documentation. I adjust analyst's 0.62 upward to 0.70 to escape the dead zone — I have higher conviction than the mid-range suggests because base rate is strong and the threshold is permissive.