Russia dominates the outlook: renewed massed strikes on Kyiv are near-certain within two weeks even as a deepening fuel crisis forces emergency Indian gasoline imports and tighter domestic censorship — yet state repression keeps mass protest unlikely. Elsewhere, NVIDIA holds its market-cap crown, Washington moves toward frontier-AI evaluation standards, and Venezuela's earthquake threatens to displace over 100,000.

Polymarket prices this at 90% with $232K open interest, though conviction is only 1.2x (speculative churn, so I discount the raw market price). CUDA ecosystem lock-in (Network Theory) and AMD/Intel being 2-3 generations behind support directional confidence over a very short 29-day horizon. The proposal applied a geopolitical tail-risk discount for the US-Iran conflict, but I checked Brent crude at $71 (stable, −0.7%) and the Middle East chain is in AFTERMATH stage — the equity tail risk is smaller than the proposal assumed, which slightly raises my estimate versus the analyst's 0.83-0.85. Technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.14) and the technologist is my best-calibrated analyst (Brier 0.14, improving), so I trust this judgment. The main residual risk is a broad NASDAQ selloff, which over 29 days is possible but not probable. Settling at 0.86.