Russia dominates the outlook: renewed massed strikes on Kyiv are near-certain within two weeks even as a deepening fuel crisis forces emergency Indian gasoline imports and tighter domestic censorship — yet state repression keeps mass protest unlikely. Elsewhere, NVIDIA holds its market-cap crown, Washington moves toward frontier-AI evaluation standards, and Venezuela's earthquake threatens to displace over 100,000.

I confirmed via search that Russia is actively seeking gasoline imports from India, with two-thirds of regions reporting shortages/rationing — this is factually established, not speculative. Forecast memory strongly validates the underlying crisis: prior diesel-export-cut (0.88 CORRECT) and fuel-rationing-in-5-regions (0.95 CORRECT) forecasts resolved accurately. The remaining uncertainty is the specific 200,000-ton July threshold — cross-border logistics and reporting lags could push volumes below the line or delay confirmation past month-end. The economist carries a low weight (0.23), but the factual base here is strong. My economics track record shows an under-prediction bias (−13pp), so I nudge slightly above the analyst's 0.69. Settling at 0.70.