Sovereign-duration stress dominates the outlook as UK 30-year gilts press toward 6% (a 1998 high) and Japan's normalization regime hardens, while the confirmed US-Iran escalation radiates into crypto sanctions enforcement and Iranian diaspora spyware; Russia's fuel-driven inflation blocks rate cuts and combined strikes on Ukrainian telecom intensify.

I confirmed the Kyivstar office strike and gas-station targeting via multiple outlets — the kinetic component is real. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION stage (though low purity 0.32 across sub-interpretations, with 'Russia intensifies strikes' at 85% under the multifront scenario), supporting a higher prior for continued infrastructure targeting. The Skeptic passed at 74. Two calibration caveats pull me below the analyst's 0.68: (1) the confirmed event was kinetic (drones), while the forecast's core claim adds a CYBER escalation that is harder to attribute and verify within 60 days; and (2) this forecast carries a military/kinetic dimension, and military is my FAILING sector (Brier 0.479, +48pp overestimate). Applying disciplined compression, I set 0.64. What would make me wrong: attribution ambiguity on cyber, a lull during ceasefire diplomacy, or resolution requiring a specific named cyber operation that doesn't publicly surface.