Oil markets dominate the outlook with Brent at $109/bbl amid the Hormuz throughput collapse — both 30-day and June price thresholds look highly likely to clear despite analyst hedging. Secondary themes: continued Russian coastal pollution from Ukrainian strikes, TSMC's angstrom-class Taiwan expansion, and post-strike Iranian and Russian domestic crackdowns.

Putin behavioral profile (BVI 5, regime survival priority, sudden decisive action followed by stabilization) maps directly onto post-attack security tightening — established 2022-2025 pattern after every Moscow incident. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in 'escalation' stage with 'expanded censorship' at 90% and 'deepened domestic repression' at 85% under the dominant interpretation. Resolution criteria (new security measures broadly defined) make confirmation highly likely. Skeptic risk_score 72. Political_hawk has no track record, applying modest discount. My geopolitics Brier is 0.23 (acceptable); I lean slightly above the analyst's 0.62 to 0.75 because the domestic-control interpretation is the strongest pattern in Russia chain dynamics.