Energy prices and European rearmament dominate today's outlook: Brent crude already trades 28% above the $85 threshold while European defense primes prepare major capacity announcements following Rutte's Brussels convening. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi summit's preliminary tariff framework, Russia's preparations for restricted Duma elections, and an Anthropic-assisted M5 macOS exploit all set up consequential 30-90 day resolution windows.

Two analysts converged independently: political_hawk (0.72) and cybersecurity (0.70). Strong historical base rate — Russia restricted internet during 2021 Duma elections, 2024 presidential, and the war has made information control more aggressive (YouTube already throttled, VPN crackdown ongoing). Putin profile (BVI 5, regime survival priority) supports systematic pre-election control. However, I apply HEAVY self-correction: cybersecurity is my FAILING sector (Brier 0.35, +72pp overestimation bias, n=5) and geopolitics is WEAK. I compress from analyst consensus 0.71 down to 0.68 — still above dead zone given overwhelming pattern evidence, but reflecting my known overestimation bias in this domain. What could make me wrong: Kremlin opts for narrative dominance (state media saturation) rather than visible shutdowns to avoid optics; or restrictions stay below 'nationwide' threshold; or elections themselves get delayed/restructured.