Conflict-driven posture and energy shocks dominate today's outlook: Poland seals border airspace and crude holds near $92 as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars grind on, while Washington moves to formalize defense-AI rules. Beneath the headlines, structural forces hold — coal's decline resists subsidy, Putin preserves succession ambiguity, and Blackstone's redemption gate is more likely to contain stress than collapse into a full suspension.

I independently verified the core claim via web search: multiple outlets confirm Poland is closing parts of its airspace near Belarus/Ukraine from June 10 to September 9 at the request of the Armed Forces Operational Command. This is an announced administrative/military measure with a named date — the base rate for such scheduled restrictions materializing absent a sudden ceasefire is very high. The Russia-Ukraine chain remains in the 'Real War Escalation' interpretation (55% weight, purity 0.42), with long-range strikes increasing, which reinforces the operational rationale. The military analyst (my strongest-performing sector, Brier 0.118) rated this 0.90; given direct confirmation I nudge slightly higher to 0.93. The only residual risk is a sudden de-escalation cancelling the order, which I judge minimal on this horizon.