Western sanctions and security responses tighten around Russia and Iran as repression deepens in Moscow, while hyperscalers continue locking in nuclear power to feed the AI buildout — five high-conviction forecasts spanning sanctions enforcement, critical-infrastructure cyber response, and energy-tech coupling.

This is a 'negative' forecast with a very high base rate: full-scale interstate invasions are rare (roughly 1-2 per decade globally) and Russia's current force posture cannot sustain a second theater while losing 1,000+ personnel per day in Ukraine. The expanded legal authority is signaling, not capacity. Skeptic risk score 67 reflects appropriate caution about Belarus integration or limited Moldova/Baltic provocations — but those would be sub-threshold for 'full-scale invasion.' My military sector is WEAK (Brier 0.31, over by 25pp), so I compress from analyst's 0.88 → 0.86 to add humility. I considered 'what would make me wrong?': (1) Ukrainian collapse freeing forces, (2) NATO political fragmentation enabling a probe, (3) Belarus annexation reclassified as invasion. All low-probability on 12-month horizon. Russia-Ukraine chain is at ESCALATION stage with 78% purity for 'real war escalation' — meaning Russia stays focused on Ukraine.