US envoy diplomacy on Ukraine takes center stage — Witkoff and Kushner's confirmed Kyiv-Moscow track is the trigger for both peace-window bargaining and a fresh wave of Kremlin information warfare, even as Russia's refinery-strike fuel crisis (now across 50+ regions) and tightening EU visa measures squeeze Moscow at home and abroad. In technology, London's supervised robotaxi launch and Russia's satellite buildout both signal that deployment reality lags the hype.

The fact-check materially strengthens this: independent reporting (Novaya Gazeta Europe, Meduza fuel-rationing map, AP) already places restrictions across 56-78 of Russia's regions, meaning the measurable '10+ regions' core is essentially already met and structurally likely to persist given continued refinery strikes and a 55% MoM oil/gas revenue drop. The Density Matrix 'Russian Energy Disarray' interpretation independently assigns ~90-95% to persisting shortages and expanding black markets. I anchor resolution on the observable rationing footprint, which is near-certain. However, the 'visible domestic political stress/discontent' element is softer and falls partly in my WEAK social/political sector (Brier 0.33, over by 27pp), so I compress from a raw ~0.88 down to 0.78 rather than going higher. Net 0.78.