Cascading consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran dominate today's outlook: confirmed destruction of Gulf aluminum smelters pushes prices toward four-year highs, wartime dynamics and a far-right policy concession consolidate Netanyahu's coalition, and refinery strikes in Haifa and Isfahan create imminent toxic air quality hazards across the eastern Mediterranean.

I set this probability 0.11 above the Skeptic's adjusted 0.67 because the Skeptic significantly underweights the wartime base rate for Israeli coalition survival. The key analytical question is not whether the death penalty law alone stabilizes the coalition (the Skeptic is right that one law is insufficient), but whether ANY Israeli coalition has collapsed during active major military operations. The historical base rate is essentially zero: Olmert's coalition survived the 2006 Lebanon War despite widely acknowledged military failures and only collapsed well after hostilities ended; Sharon's coalition survived the Second Intifada operations; even the fractious 2021-2022 Bennett-Lapid government survived through security operations. The current Iran conflict is far more existential than any of these precedents, making any domestic political challenge appear unpatriotic and treasonous. Netanyahu's behavioral profile (BVI 6) confirms his pattern of using external security crises to suppress domestic legal proceedings — the Iran war is the ultimate such crisis. The death penalty law is a marginal addition to an already strong wartime survival dynamic: it ties Ben Gvir's political brand to a coalition achievement, raising his exit costs (per selectorate theory, the winning coalition has received a policy payoff). The Skeptic correctly identifies counter-risks: hostage negotiations, Supreme Court review of the law, military setbacks, and US pressure. I account for these by not pushing above 0.80. But each of these risks has a low probability of triggering coalition collapse within 90 days during active wartime: courts move slowly, hostage families historically haven't toppled governments, and US pressure on domestic Israeli politics has been ineffective across multiple administrations. The Israel: Palestine 2023-2024 historical analogy supports this — Netanyahu's coalition survived October 7 and the entire Gaza campaign despite enormous domestic and international pressure.