Middle East post-conflict dynamics dominate today's forecast: Hormuz commercial shipping is likely to normalize under coalition escort within 45 days even as Israeli street protests cross 10,000 participants and Iranian antiwar mobilization remains suppressed by regime coercion. Strategic realignment continues with the newly-signed Pax Silica U.S.-Philippines semiconductor zone and expected NATO brigade reinforcements in Eastern Europe.

Three convergent reasons justify a probability higher than the analyst's 0.72: (1) Forecast memory shows the closest past Hormuz forecast ('Iran maintains selective passage') resolved CORRECT at P=0.95, Brier 0.0025. (2) Middle East regional war chain lifecycle is AFTERMATH — strong counter-evidence to sustained closure. (3) USNI and CNN reporting confirms active US/European naval escort planning; FreightWaves notes industry pressure. Force-balance pillar (US-led naval superiority), alliance-dynamics pillar (UK, Oman coordination), and escalation-ladder pillar all converge. Main risk: Iran climbing the escalation ladder toward mining, but that would be a regime-risking choice Khamenei has historically avoided. I apply modest bias compression (military sector over by 14pp) but the base rate and chain stage both dominate — 0.80 remains defensible against my starting 0.85 intuition.