Middle East post-conflict dynamics dominate today's forecast: Hormuz commercial shipping is likely to normalize under coalition escort within 45 days even as Israeli street protests cross 10,000 participants and Iranian antiwar mobilization remains suppressed by regime coercion. Strategic realignment continues with the newly-signed Pax Silica U.S.-Philippines semiconductor zone and expected NATO brigade reinforcements in Eastern Europe.

Base rate strongly supports this: wartime authoritarian regimes with intact coercive apparatus rarely produce verified multi-city 10K+ antiwar protests. Iran's 2022 Mahsa Amini wave required months of independent grievance accumulation AND concerned regime-facing (not external-war-facing) demands. Antiwar mobilization specifically is harder because the regime successfully frames external pressure as vindicating its security posture. Sociologist council (single-source GPT) correctly identified repression+censorship+short grievance window as dominant factors. Skeptic approved 0.78 (risk 84). I nudge up to 0.82 because the 'verified' requirement is stringent — even if protests occur, verification through international channels is difficult under Iranian media blackouts. Compressing slightly toward my social sector's strong Brier (0.17).