An active US-Iran shooting war dominates the outlook: with US personnel killed in Jordan and CENTCOM striking Iranian targets nightly, further US strikes, a Gulf missile-defense surge, and continued maritime incidents near Hormuz are all likely within weeks — though Trump's history of abrupt escalate-then-deal reversals caps the certainty. Secondary threads span the AI industrial buildout (Alibaba's next Qwen, Oracle's Wisconsin power bottleneck), fraying EU sanctions unity, and tightening Russian financial and diaspora-repression measures.

This sits within the Russia-Ukraine confrontation mega-chain (escalation stage), where domestic ideological tightening is an explicit, recurring feature — a strong structural prior. The political analyst has no track record yet, so I lean on the base rate: the Duma passes regime-backed repression bills at very high rates once actively advanced. However, I classify this as social-sector (diaspora repression / information control), and my social-sector record is failing (+15pp over-prediction bias), which mandates compression toward 50. I therefore hold at 0.68 rather than the 0.75+ the raw legislative base rate might suggest, accounting for the specific 90-day timing threshold (a bill advancing is not the same as enactment on schedule) and my documented bias. What would make me wrong: the bill stalls in committee, gets merged/renamed, or slips past 90 days. Pillars: psychohistory, network_theory.