The US-Iran war enters an entrenched phase with no ceasefire in sight, driving sustained oil price disruption likely to hold Brent above $110/barrel through Q2, urgent nuclear safety monitoring expansion across the Gulf, and Iran's formalization of wartime economic controls — while the structural risk of Iranian NPT withdrawal emerges as a genuine decade-scale concern.

Three council members reached consensus (DeepSeek P=0.86, GPT P=0.84, Claude P=0.82), and the Skeptic adjusted to P=0.72. I assess at P=0.70, marginally below the Skeptic, because the 90-day sustainment window introduces compounding downside tail risks that the bullish consensus underweights. The BULLISH CASE is strong and well-evidenced: Hormuz carries ~20% of global oil supply and is actively contested — confirmed by the chains 'Iran military targets US vessel near Oman port' (20 clusters, escalation), 'Iran blockade drives up oil prices' (8 clusters, escalation), and 'Kuwait oil price rises above $118 amid Hormuz tensions' (10 clusters). Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline at full 7mb/d capacity confirms the market is routing around Hormuz, but this only handles Saudi volumes — Iraqi (~3.5mb/d) and residual Iranian exports remain Hormuz-dependent. Russia's gasoline export ban from April 1 (16-cluster chain, confirmed) further tightens global refined product supply. The Pentagon's preparation for 'weeks of ground operations' (7-cluster chain, stalled at escalation) and Trump's delayed Strait of Hormuz deadline signal protracted conflict. The Skeptic correctly identified critical DOWNSIDE SCENARIOS the analysts ignored: (1) US SPR releases (~350M barrels remaining) could temporarily suppress prices; (2) OPEC+ spare capacity (~3-4mb/d) could be deployed — though Saudi political will is uncertain during a war involving their regional rival Iran; (3) demand destruction accelerates above $120, visible in the 'US consumer sentiment dips' chain and 'Wall Street biggest loss of war'; (4) ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough, though the 'Qatar elder warns of escalation' chain (de-escalation stage) and 'Oil prices rise as Iran rejects direct US talks' suggest diplomacy is failing. Historical calibration: The 1973 Arab oil embargo (economist's analogy) saw sustained prices for 6 months, but that was a deliberate cartel action, not wartime interdiction. The 1980 Iran-Iraq War is a closer analog — prices spiked 150% initially, then moderated within 6-12 months as alternative routes and spare capacity came online. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock kept Brent above $100 for roughly 5 months before demand destruction and SPR releases pulled it down. For Q2 average specifically: Brent is already above $110 and the war shows no ceasefire signals (all major chains stalled at escalation). Even with periodic daily closes below $110 on de-escalation rumors, the quarterly average should remain elevated. P=0.70 reflects 70% confidence in sustained disruption vs. 30% combined probability of meaningful SPR/OPEC response, demand-induced recession, or surprise diplomatic resolution.