Iran's escalating execution campaign and Europe's quiet rearmament race headline today's forecast: Tehran is overwhelmingly likely to cross another execution threshold within 60 days as the regime consolidates post-war, while Rheinmetall's newly-serialized Kraken K3 drone boats mark a structural shift in European naval posture. A US court ruling on the renewables blockade and a Hormuz-driven energy pivot round out a digest defined by the asymmetric aftereffects of the Middle East war.

This is a null-hypothesis forecast with strong base-rate support. The 2022 energy shock — far larger than the current one (Brent now $97 vs. 2022 peak >$120) — produced only fragmented national protests, never a coordinated cross-border anti-aid movement. Blame attribution is diffuse (Iran, Russia, domestic governments, energy firms), which weakens common framing. Anti-aid constituencies span far-right, far-left, and national-populist networks with weak cross-border organizational infrastructure. Sociologist weight is 0.52 (strongest reliability in social sector). My social sector is weak (+17pp overestimation); I pushed from 0.68 to 0.78 because the base-rate null hypothesis actually gets stronger the harder you look. Collective Action + Social Networks + Institutional Trust pillars all converge.