A fragile US-Iran ceasefire cools the oil market — Brent tumbling to ~$86 despite ongoing Houthi tanker attacks — even as the war economies grind on: Russia moves toward emergency fuel-market controls amid refinery strikes, Ukraine's Black Sea container trade stays frozen, and Western arms keep flowing. Elsewhere, Ortega's vow to end Nicaraguan elections points to formalized one-party rule, while a confirmed 'rogue model' incident at OpenAI is unlikely to force binding US AI regulation this quarter.

Economist proposal (P=0.71, Skeptic 76, weight 0.20 in economics). Maersk has already suspended Chornomorsk after Russian strikes on Odesa-area port infrastructure, and Novorossiysk imposed night vessel restrictions — both sides are targeting maritime logistics more aggressively. The Skeptic fairly flagged an alternative explanation: Maersk also framed the move partly as 'network optimization,' which could allow resumption for commercial reasons. I weigh this but note the dominant driver remains security/insurance: once a carrier suspends due to strike risk, resumption is slow while strikes and elevated war-risk premiums persist, and the Russia-Ukraine chain shows no de-escalation. Base rate for a major liner reversing a security-driven suspension within ~10 weeks amid ongoing strikes is low. I hold at 0.70 (economics is a sector where I mildly underestimate, so I do not discount further).