Sticky US inflation and an enduring Middle East energy shock anchor today's outlook, while three technology forecasts — orbital data centers, NATO defense AI procurement, and Israeli counter-drone hardening — show how the post-Iran-war infrastructure cycle is reshaping capital flows from space ventures back to terrestrial and battlefield-proven systems.

Very short horizon (5 days) and high specificity favor confident forecasting. Recent precedents (Eurovision 2024 Malmö, 2025 Basel) both saw protest activity with detentions during the Israel-participating events. Vienna police have already announced enhanced security posture, which itself is a near-deterministic signal that authorities expect confrontation. Base rate for major European event with announced pro-Palestinian protest mobilization producing 'dozens of detentions' is ~75-80%. Original P=0.57 was in the dead zone; I push to 0.74 given the historical base rate, confirmed mobilization announcements, and the very specific (and modest) bar of 'localized clashes plus mass detentions' — not citywide unrest. Social sector calibration is acceptable.