Ukraine's war economy dominates today's outlook — from record Russian fuel-price shocks driven by refinery strikes to a €15bn Western financing backfill and a maturing Ukraine-Norway drone industrial base — while Iran's dual-track escalation (protest-linked executions at home and cyber operations against UK energy infrastructure) marks a widening confrontation with the West.

The base rate is the dominant evidence here: since 2022 Western partners have repeatedly backfilled Ukraine's financing gaps, and Zelensky's €30 billion request plus the confirmed defense budget hole create clear demand. Economist carries full sector weight (1.00). The Skeptic (risk 81) rightly flags single-source pipeline thinness and that €15B specifically by year-end is not automatic — disbursement timing frequently slips past calendar deadlines. Against that, the sheer scale of committed EU mechanisms and NB8 support makes the €15B threshold cumulatively achievable within 129 days. My economics sector runs hot (+18pp), so I hold at the analyst's 0.68 rather than pushing higher. This sits above the dead zone on strong base-rate grounds.