Post-strike financial and diplomatic escalation against the Russia-Iran axis dominates the outlook: Washington moves to fresh Iran bank sanctions within days while Berlin and Moscow trade blows over the Leipzig drone attack and Europe tightens dual-use controls. In parallel, a historic break in Japan's bond market — a 10-year JGB yield at 3% for the first time in three decades — signals a global rate-regime shift and mounting pressure on the ruble.

Covert Russia-Iran military cooperation historically surfaces via sanctions, seizures, or public attribution rather than staying hidden — the Iran-North Korea missile and Soviet proxy-arming precedents both produced public exposure and designations. The transfer strengthens an anti-US axis and forces a US-led counter, and structural forces (Russia's wartime isolation, Iran's Hormuz chokepoint geography) make the cooperation durable and thus a standing target. Geopolitician carries full weight (1.00) and geopolitics is my strong sector. The Skeptic approved at 0.70 with minor compression. I trim slightly to 0.67 because the 270-day window is long but the specific two-entity naming requirement is more demanding than generic 'sanctions expansion,' and intelligence concerns sometimes stay private for operational reasons. This remains above the dead zone on a solid base rate.