Multilateral naval coalition formed to patrol Strait of Hormuz within 6 months
Following Iranian attacks on US bases and the historic OPEC output collapse, the US, UK, and Gulf/regional allies are likely to establish a formal naval coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping by November 2026. The framework would resemble 2019's Operation Sentinel but with broader regional and European participation given the much larger global stakes.
Russia primes a Victory Day missile salvo against Ukraine while OPEC output sits at a 36-year low — the Middle East energy shock and the Russia-Ukraine escalation now interlock, threatening European jet fuel supplies, accelerating US solar deployment, and pushing Washington toward a Hormuz naval coalition. Meanwhile Beijing's Big Fund is consolidating frontier AI under state capital with a $45B DeepSeek round.
Historical analog (Operation Sentinel/IMSC) was assembled in roughly 2 months in 2019 with much weaker catalysts (a few tanker attacks). Current circumstances feature: (1) actual Iranian attacks on US bases, (2) OPEC output at 36-year lows directly attributable to Hormuz disruption, (3) global oil price near $100, and (4) European jet-fuel emergency emerging. The strategic and economic incentives for a multilateral patrol mission are an order of magnitude higher than 2019. Middle East War chain in AFTERMATH stage with 'Protracted Energy Conflict' interpretation (25%) explicitly forecasting 'maritime standoff escalation' at 70%. Risks: US administration ambiguity (Trump's transactional approach may demand cost-sharing terms that delay formation), Gulf state hesitancy about provocation. Skeptic risk score 74. Geopolitics is OK for me (slight under-bias). Pushing slightly above the 0.62 starting point because the 6-month horizon comfortably accommodates assembly delays. Game Theory pillar: with shipping costs already escalating, the cooperative equilibrium for major importers strongly favors coordination.