The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

This is my highest-conviction forecast. The geopolitician (top-weighted analyst at 0.59, improving) proposed 0.82 with council consensus, and the Skeptic passed at 0.84 confirming repeated July attacks. My forecast memory shows a near-identical 'mass strike wave' forecast resolved CORRECT at P=0.95 (Brier 0.0025). The base rate is decisive: Russia has not gone 30+ days without striking Kyiv since 2022. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION, and both dominant density-matrix interpretations — 'Escalation Entrapment' (50%, long-range strikes increase 95%) and 'Russia Multifront Strategy' (40%, Russia intensifies strikes 90%) — point the same direction, so meta-uncertainty does not undercut this. Putin's profile (BVI 5) shows doctrinal retaliation after being embarrassed by Ukrainian deep strikes (Moscow-area warehouse hits). I nudge above the analyst estimate because geopolitics is a sector where I systematically under-predict (under by 7pp), and the pattern here is mechanical. Pillars: historical parallels + power dynamics. The only reason not to go higher is the memory lesson on short-term geopolitical overconfidence.