Energy supply shocks dominate the outlook: US strikes on Iranian tankers and Houthi hits on Saudi facilities hold Brent above $100 while European gas surges past €79/MWh into the tightest pre-winter storage since 2013. Beneath the commodity stress, a hardening security economy takes shape — accelerating Russian loyalty prosecutions, a >10% German defense budget jump, AI-driven election interference ahead of the US midterms, and a defense-tech munitions scaling race.

Base rate anchors this: zero tests since September 2017, a nine-year moratorium that survived Trump summits, COVID, and the Russia alignment, implying a ~10-15% annual test probability. The new Yongbyon cascades signal enrichment expansion, not Punggye-ri reactivation — historically distinguishable tracks. The Skeptic (risk 77) fairly noted the no-test case leans on asserted rather than evidenced absence of test-site activity, so I don't go to the ~0.88 the pure base rate would suggest. This is my strong geopolitics sector (slight underprediction bias), which supports raising above the analyst's 0.74. Over a full 365-day window the cumulative test odds are higher than a short window, so I settle at 0.78 — confidently 'no test' but respecting the year-long horizon and the Kim regime's demonstrated willingness to surprise.