War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

This pairs tightly with the confirmed EO (idx 5). Two mechanisms push probability above the analyst's 0.63: (1) the US has an established cadence of publicly attributing PRC energy/critical-infrastructure intrusions — Volt Typhoon disclosures (2023-2024) are the direct precedent for utility-side pre-positioning; (2) a fresh EO spotlighting exactly this vector creates political demand for a supporting public case, and 180 days is a generous window. The Global Cybersecurity chain's dominant interpretations ('technology sovereignty push,' 'authoritarian control') are consistent with escalating mutual attribution. The cybersecurity analyst has no track record weight, but my own cyber calibration is not a failing sector. Skeptic (68) is reasonable; I raise to 0.72 on the strength of the Volt Typhoon precedent plus the EO catalyst, which lifts it cleanly out of the dead zone.