Russia-Ukraine war and Iran conflict continue to drive geopolitical risk, with durable ceasefires and formal peace talks both unlikely while US strikes on Iran resume — yet oil markets are signaling de-escalation rather than escalation, and the Fed is on hold. AI infrastructure governance emerges as the structural story: Pentagon classified-network deployment and US grid cost-allocation battles reshape who pays for the AI buildout.

Putin's pattern (long preparation → decisive action → stabilize at new equilibrium → resist rollback) is incompatible with formal negotiations on terms Ukraine could accept. Trump (BVI 8) cycles through escalation-pressure-deal claims, but the gap between maximalist Russian demands and minimum Ukrainian acceptance remains structural, not tactical. The chain interpretation 'Russian Narrative Shift' (30%) explicitly anticipates Ukraine peace offers rejected. Geopolitician_dove weight is 0.16 in geopolitics — modest — but the forecast aligns with my own analysis: the base rate of formal negotiations starting within 60 days of broken ceasefire is very low. I keep close to analyst's 0.75 with a slight upward adjustment given the recent confirmed Russian ceasefire violation. My geopolitics sector is weak (Brier 0.26), so I don't push beyond 0.78.