Twin pressure points dominate today's outlook: an active US-Iran tit-for-tat cycle near Hormuz that markets are pricing as limited (Brent fell 4.3% even as strikes resumed), and a deepening Russian fuel and energy crisis now forcing emergency rationing across dozens of regions even as Moscow intensifies blackout strikes on Ukraine. Trump's escalate-then-deal pattern shapes both the Iran de-escalation odds and the low probability that his 100% EU digital-tax tariff is actually implemented within 60 days.

Fact-check confirms the scale (920 dead, thousands reported missing, desperate search) and notably references deaths 'since protests' — indicating grievance-driven collective action is already emerging. The causal logic is textbook: severed supply lines, displaced populations, and the Maduro government's limited and politicized relief capacity create classic conditions for survival-driven unrest. The sociologist (good sector track record, my own social Brier is solid at 0.157) rates this 0.66 with Skeptic concurrence. I hold near that level at 0.64 — the main downside is that the Maduro state may pre-empt unrest with heavy security deployment and tightly controlled (if inequitable) distribution, and 'unrest in at least one city' is a low bar that disaster aftermaths frequently clear. This sits just outside the dead zone with directional conviction grounded in confirmed on-the-ground desperation.