Trump's Beijing summit with Xi — Jensen Huang in tow — anchors today's outlook, signaling pragmatic US-China dealmaking that points toward a new Nvidia China-compliant chip and a delay in major Taiwan arms announcements, even as the Russia-Ukraine drone war, $100+ Brent, and acute coalition crises in Israel and the Philippines keep the global stress map fully lit.

This is a continuation forecast, not a new event forecast — the 500+/week tempo is already documented in recent weeks with 800-drone barrages. Russia-Ukraine chain is in 'escalation' stage with 40% on 'Real War Escalation' (85% long-range strikes increase). For this to resolve no, Russia would need to either run out of Shahed inventory (no evidence) or unilaterally de-escalate (against current signaling). APPLYING SELF-CORRECTION: my military Brier 0.309 over-bias 25pp pushes me to compress from any naive 0.85+ continuation reading toward ~0.75. What would make me wrong? (1) Iranian drone supply chain disruption, (2) major Ukrainian counter-strike on Shahed production/launch nodes, (3) Trump-brokered partial truce. Skeptic-adjusted 0.68 is a touch low given the strikes are already happening; I land at 0.75.