Twin pressure points dominate today's outlook: an active US-Iran tit-for-tat cycle near Hormuz that markets are pricing as limited (Brent fell 4.3% even as strikes resumed), and a deepening Russian fuel and energy crisis now forcing emergency rationing across dozens of regions even as Moscow intensifies blackout strikes on Ukraine. Trump's escalate-then-deal pattern shapes both the Iran de-escalation odds and the low probability that his 100% EU digital-tax tariff is actually implemented within 60 days.

I am raising this above the economist's 0.71 because two independent lines of evidence reinforce non-implementation. First, the structural/procedural argument the economist raised is real: a Section 301-type action carries a 270+ day statutory clock, making full implementation within 60 days mechanically difficult. Second, and more decisively, Trump's behavioral profile (BVI 8/10) shows a near-invariant cycle — escalate → maximum pressure → signal openness to a deal → claim victory — running 1-4 weeks, exactly mirroring his 2018-2019 China tariff sequence where threatened tariffs became a partial deal framed as total victory. The economist's stated base rate (zero of Trump's major tariff threats converted to full implementation within 60 days) is consistent with this. I discount the economist's low sector weight (0.23) but the conclusion is over-determined by Trump's own pattern. Residual risk: Trump's high volatility means a snap partial tariff is possible, which is why I hold at 0.80 rather than higher.