Failed US-Iran ceasefire talks and an active naval blockade create critical near-term tension in the Middle East, while Sudan's dual humanitarian catastrophe — displacement into neighboring states and collapsing food production — dominates the social outlook. Across Europe, the EU asserts regulatory power over Meta's AI pricing as Russia escalates both cyber operations (GRU mailbox campaign across five countries) and domestic internet control.

The causal chain from war to missed planting season to food crisis is well-documented and has a hard temporal constraint — the April-June window for sorghum and millet cannot be recovered if missed. The climatologist council consensus (GPT 0.69, Claude 0.72) reflects strong agreement, and the Skeptic adjusted to 0.68, noting the forecast is 'slightly high given base rates.' I agree with the directional case but apply additional compression. SELF-CORRECTION: My environment sector is FAILING (Brier 0.804, n=1, over by 90pp) and social is WEAK (over by 17pp). This forecast sits at the intersection. I defer heavily to the Skeptic's assessment and set 0.67, below the Skeptic's 0.68. 'What would make me wrong?' (1) The 30M threshold is a specific, high bar — IPC assessment methodology and timing could delay formal recognition past the 60-day window even if underlying conditions warrant it; (2) Humanitarian aid corridors could partially compensate despite conflict; (3) Some planting may occur in non-conflict zones (eastern Sudan, Red Sea coast). The threshold specificity is the main risk: the directional case for deepening malnutrition is near-certain, but formal recognition of 30M+ within exactly 60 days introduces measurement uncertainty. The event chain (humanitarian crises in ESCALATION, 179 clusters) and density matrix (40% Climate-Conflict Feedback Loop interpretation) both support the forecast direction.