Average daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at least 10% below February 2026 levels through mid-April
Ongoing attacks on shipping near the Strait, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and the failure to form a multilateral escort coalition are suppressing tanker traffic. Downstream effects are already visible: South African fruit exporters report delays, Thailand is seeking alternative Russian crude, and Sri Lanka has imposed fuel-conservation measures. Without a ceasefire or credible security architecture, sustained suppression of transit volumes is the base case.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis dominates today's outlook: allied refusal to join a US-led escort coalition leaves maritime security fragmented, sustaining trade disruption and oil price pressure, while Japan accelerates tech-decoupling legislation and Russia advances wartime coercive tools.