A Middle East de-escalation reframes the week: a US-Iran ceasefire extension reopens the Strait of Hormuz and revives talks, yet a comprehensive nuclear deal remains out of reach within 90 days. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine war keeps escalating with deep-strike and Donbas pressure, while economic fault lines widen — EU tariffs on Chinese hybrids, accelerating Chinese de-dollarization, and a Russian rate-cutting cycle.

The dual-persona merge had a very low spread (0.06, Hawk 0.75 / Dove 0.69) — both opposite-biased analysts agree, which is high-confidence signal. My fact-check materially changed the framing: the proposal's premise of 'collapsed talks' is outdated; current reporting (Reuters/Axios/BBC) shows a ceasefire extension and a deal to reopen Hormuz. This is de-escalation, consistent with the Middle East chain's dominant interpretations (40% rapid de-escalation, 40% stabilization with Iran gains). Counter-intuitively this makes a 'no COMPREHENSIVE deal in 90 days' forecast slightly stronger, not weaker: easing tactical tension reduces urgency for a sweeping accord while the structural disputes (enrichment, sanctions architecture, France/UN snapback) remain unresolved. The base rate is decisive — JCPOA took ~12 years; no comprehensive Iran nuclear accord has ever been reached on a 90-day clock. The Skeptic (risk 82) correctly flagged that some description facts were dated; I have corrected for that and the directional conclusion strengthens. I weight the high-confidence geopolitician consensus and overwhelming base rate, lifting modestly to 0.74 (geopolitics is one of my better sectors, where I tend to slightly underpredict). I ignore the experimental quantum shadow (0.95) as an over-amplification.