US-China de-escalation leads today's outlook: Trump has confirmed he will meet Xi again at APEC and the G20, and the $30bn tariff deal is likely to take effect. Ukraine's strikes on Russian arms plants and a revived US-Russia channel run in parallel, while a US strike on Cuba or a new formal Russian mobilization both look unlikely in the near term.

The analysts came in at 0.72 (both DeepSeek and GPT), and the Skeptic lowered that to 0.68 because nobody gave a base rate for plant strikes over 60 days. I think the base rate is what argues for a higher number. Through 2025-2026, Ukraine has hit Russian defense plants (electronics, explosives, drone and missile makers) about every one to three weeks, on top of its refinery strikes. Russia reported 645 drones shot down in a single night, which shows the long-range campaign is still running at high volume. Ukraine's claimed ballistic missile adds more ways to hit targets. With roughly eight weeks in the window, missing every industrial target would break the pattern of the whole campaign. The main risks are a ceasefire from the diplomatic track, which I see as unlikely to hold within 60 days, or ambiguous reporting where only Russia confirms an interception. Three reasoning lenses point the same way: force balance, escalation dynamics and history. I also tend to underestimate military outcomes by about 7 percentage points. I put this at 0.88.