Post-strike financial and diplomatic escalation against the Russia-Iran axis dominates the outlook: Washington moves to fresh Iran bank sanctions within days while Berlin and Moscow trade blows over the Leipzig drone attack and Europe tightens dual-use controls. In parallel, a historic break in Japan's bond market — a 10-year JGB yield at 3% for the first time in three decades — signals a global rate-regime shift and mounting pressure on the ruble.

The resolution criteria are broad (any one publicly attributed disruptive incident against a wide target set) over a long 12-month window, which pushes the base rate up. Iranian and Russia-linked actors conduct near-continuous operations against Gulf/Israeli maritime, logistics, and defense targets, and public attribution by Western/regional CERTs is routine. The deepening Russia-Iran military alignment (per the FT anti-ship program) increases both capability transfer and motive. Cybersecurity is my single best-calibrated sector (Brier 0.054, with a tendency to underpredict by ~23pp), so I deliberately push above the analyst's 0.63 and the Skeptic's matching 0.63 rather than compress it. The main risk to the forecast is attribution ambiguity — incidents happen but clean public attribution to a state actor within the window is the binding constraint. I set 0.72, comfortably out of the dead zone.