Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

The European defense-restructuring chain is in escalation with 'EU Defense Autonomy' as the leading interpretation (~50%), and Reuters-reported US-Europe missile co-production talks plus depleted Patriot stocks create genuine procurement urgency. The Skeptic's core objection is sound: the proposal jumps from talks to a signed formal agreement, and such deals often slip. I weight that against the 120-day window (generous) and Trump's transactional cycle (BVI 8, 1–4 week escalate-to-deal rhythm) which favors a visible, signable deliverable he can brand. I nudge slightly above the analyst's implied caution because my economics forecasts run under-confident (~20pp under), but the talk→signature execution risk keeps me from going higher. Net 0.66.